Alexander Forbes identifies key economic trends and investment themes for 2021 and beyond

By Opinion Time of article published 19m in the past

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Following the risky year for the worldwide and home economies in 2020, we count on 2021 to see an enchancment, although uneven throughout economies. Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at Alexander Forbes, says, “South Africa’s economic recovery depends on several factors, some controllable and others uncontrollable, with the most important one being the logistics of Covid-19 vaccines.”

Which components will drive the economic recovery this year and beyond?

The extent of Covid-19 infections and associated deaths, and authorities’s lockdown restrictions

The second wave of Covid-19 infections seems to be moderating. With the relief from degree three from the third week of February, the danger of a 3rd wave of Covid-19 infections in winter will probably be a drag on progress. What will make all of the distinction is vaccination, which incorporates the flexibility to acquire Covid-19 vaccines, efficient distribution, and extensive acceptance, which we count on to see within the second half of 2022.

Economic prices of lockdown restrictions for companies and people

We count on these prices to proceed this year.

Pressure for authorities to increase the non permanent employer/worker aid scheme and set up a primary earnings grant will enhance fiscal danger, although mandatory

We count on higher than anticipated income outcomes for fiscal year 2020/2021 however 2021/2022 will seemingly stay in line throughout the medium-term funds coverage assertion (MTBPS) forecasts. Fiscal danger stays very excessive, particularly beyond 2022.

Monetary coverage will stay accommodative

It will solely begin normalising within the second half of 2022.

In addition, Isaah says that, “Global trade volumes show signs of a recovery but the recent resurgence in Covid-19 infections and lockdowns poses a downside risk to the global economic outlook in the medium term. Global growth is expected to rebound by 5.5% in 2021 from a revised projected contraction of 3.4% in 2020 on expected vaccine-driven strengthening and additional fiscal policy support.”

He provides, “Global activity will remain well below pre-Covid, January 2020, levels. Even with the anticipated recovery in 2021 and 2022, output gaps are not expected to close until after 2022 and inflation is expected to remain subdued.”

According to Mhlanga, South Africa’s long-term progress methods for the economic system after the Covid-19 pandemic should take into account the next:

Localising international manufacturing at consumption web site by way of manufacturing onshoring

The technological leap, which is everlasting with enormous advantages to economies, however the digital divide will persist

The rise of the house office and the web retail market, leading to a change in dynamics within the property market: residential improves however business is in danger

Reduced regional and worldwide journey for business for multinationals

Africa Free Continental Trade Area will probably be transformational however has numerous hurdles to cross, with the necessity for an accompanying Africa-wide air transport protocol

Lebo Thubisi, head of supervisor analysis at Alexander Forbes Investments, particulars key themes that he believes are most definitely to play out in 2021 and beyond:

Entrenching sustainability and environmental, social and company governance (ESG) components

2021 will definitely be a key year for tackling local weather change as world leaders will probably be congregating in Glasgow. We are additionally seeing a regulatory onslaught of worldwide inexperienced finance taxonomies similtaneously National Treasury is working to develop a primary nationwide inexperienced finance taxonomy for South Africa.

“The Biden presidency will impact global markets with a pro-climate stance, while the shift to renewable energy by the United States of America places pressure on global finance of coals assets,” says Thubisi.

He feedback that Covid-19 has led to a rethink of variety and inclusion practices round inequity, gender pay disparity and parental obligations. Based on an annual international asset administration survey by Willis Towers Watson, 50% of asset managers surveyed elevated the variety of ethnic minorities and girls at senior positions. As Thubisi remarks, change is firmly within the air.

The scale sport – the rise in consolidation of the asset administration trade

The market atmosphere has meant that there was a quickening of the tempo of consolidation in 2020, which Thubisi expects to proceed in 2021. This has come as some bigger investment managers have used their scale to develop revenue margins, whereas providing merchandise at decrease prices. “Many of these firms have done so by investing in new technology to improve performance and efficiency, while freeing resources for more profitable activities,” remarks Thubisi.

Monetisation of information analytics

“One can never be sure that all information has been considered. Artificial intelligence can dig deeper and find the ‘invisible relationships’ that exist between data sets,” says Thubisi. He provides that: “Artificial intelligence has no emotions and is totally indifferent to the outcome of the decision. Its task is to suggest the better option with an unbiased view given the stipulated parameters and make accurate predictions. It may also be powered by a predictor which will allow you to get as accurate predictions as possible considering real-time and historical data.”

Investment managers are quick embracing the cloud as this device and superior analytics improve value efficiencies. The cloud additionally brings in on-demand storage and processing capabilities, leading to new developments similar to superior analytics to course of nearly every kind of structured and unstructured knowledge to enhance choice making.

Alternatives revolution – period of diversification

Thubisi agrees with Boston Consulting Group that “the alternative fund industry is going to grow significantly over the next five years. People are going to move away from equities, and investors are going to expand their longevity outlook and invest with a longer time horizon in mind.”

He commented that infrastructure investments provide a slew of alternatives from which traders can profit whereas supporting small investees in growing economies. “Emerging market populations already make up 65% of the global total and are growing rapidly. This creates considerable demand for the development of infrastructure which must be met sustainably.”

As the highway out of lockdown opens, South Africans are turning their strategic focus to methods to compete within the much-changed market rising from the disaster.

“Global growth is set to improve but will remain constrained until population immunity is achieved, and South Africa’s growth will rebound from a low base but normalise around 2%. Certainty on land expropriation removes a threat to confidence and there is value in South African asset classes driven by a weakening US dollar cycle that favours emerging markets,” concludes Mhlanga.


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